Localized versus wide-ranging effects of the post-Soviet wars in the Caucasus on agricultural abandonment

Wars are frequent and can affect land use substantially, but the effects of wars vary greatly depending on their characteristics, such as intensity or duration. Furthermore, spatial scale differ. The may be localized thus close to conflict locations if direct mechanisms matter most (e.g., abandonment because active fighting precludes farming), wide-ranging, e.g., farther away from locations, indirect predominate no access agricultural inputs). Our goal was quantify how very different in Caucasus region during post-Soviet times likely affected at scales. We analyzed data plus Landsat-derived land-cover 1987 2015, applied matching statistics, difference-in-differences estimators, logistic panel regressions. examined versus wide-ranging permanent inferred that have resulted abandonment. While overall surprisingly limited across Caucasus, up one third related wars. Among wars, war Chechnya by far intense longest, its effect similar less relatively short Abkhazia. 47 % 45 each war, respectively. reason more localized, occurred near contrast Abkhazia, where locations. In contrast, South Ossetia showed significant abandonment, Nagorno-Karabakh had surprising pattern higher occurred. For predominately nearest Abkhazia additional within 10 km further increased probability infer bombing, a Nagorno-Karabakh. However, subsidies for new settlers after (i.e., positive effect), potentially reduced amount there. negative refugee movements post-war restrictions return is broad-scale summary, not necessarily with high intensity. Instead, given varied scale, relative importance mechanisms, including postwar events policies, which case other too.